OPINION | Prabowo’s China challenge around the Natuna Islands

News has broken in recent days about China’s latest intrusion in Indonesian waters around the Natuna Islands, only to be confronted by vessels from the Indonesian Navy and coast guard. Beijing’s move is being described as testing the new Indonesian government led by Prabowo Subianto.

However, the incident could be interpreted another way: rather, that Indonesia’s approach to China may have changed.

There’s nothing new about the presence of Chinese vessels around the Natuna Islands. China persistently intruded into these waters throughout the Joko Widodo presidency.

"Widodo's approach may have been an effort not to escalate tensions, or 'winning the war without shaming the enemies'."

Indonesia took a strong position during his early years. In 2016, an Indonesian Navy ship opened fire on a Chinese fishing boat, injuring one fisherman, and then detained several others. Seized Chinese fishing boats were sank as part of Jakarta’s effort to deter foreign illegal fishing.

However, Indonesia adopted a quieter approach to China’s encroachment in the later period of Widodo’s presidency. This may have been an effort not to escalate tensions, or “winning the war without shaming the enemies” as one former Indonesian foreign ministry official described. Or it may have reflected Jokowi’s desire to attract infrastructure investments from Beijing and expand trade and economic relations.

"The latest confrontation with a China Coast Guard vessel so soon after Prabowo’s inauguration indicated a departure from quiet diplomacy."

Nevertheless, China continued to maintain some form of presence in the waters around the Natunas, with little publicity given to any confrontation between the Chinese and the Indonesians.

The attention given to this latest incident might suggest that Prabowo’s approach will differ from Jokowi’s. Prabowo was defence minister under Widodo and was well-versed in the previous approach. But the fact that the Indonesian Sea and Coast Guard released a video providing details of the latest confrontation with a China Coast Guard vessel so soon after Prabowo’s inauguration indicated a departure from quiet diplomacy. It may be a form of assertive transparency, akin to efforts by the Philippines, regarding the waters around the Natunas.

But this does not foreshadow an Indonesian break with China. Shortly after the incident in the Natuna waters became known, the Indonesia’s new defence minister met with China’s ambassador in Jakarta to discuss a planned joint military exercise.

Prabowo seems to be demonstrating that Indonesia can be a friend to China but will also stand up to Beijing if necessary.

This story originally appeared on The Interpreter, published by the Lowy Institute for International Policy.